India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) maintains a negative outlook on the construction sector for FY15, due to strained liquidity resulting from lengthened working capital cycles and restrained lending by banks. While revenue has remained flat, EBITDA margins have fallen and debt levels continue to rise, leading to deterioration in credit metrics.
While most Ind-Ra rated companies have Stable Outlooks reflecting that risks have inherently been captured at the lower rating levels, we believe their credit metrics and liquidity will be under pressure in FY15 and negative rating actions could be warranted, especially for companies on negative watch/outlook.
The working capital needs of most construction companies have increased but funding sources are drying up. Aggressive bidding at low margins has reduced potential surpluses from operations. As EBITDA margins are very close or even lower than retention money margins in some cases, operational cash flows are negative and the companies need further working capital. Compounding this is the steep rise in order book till 2012 which now requires additional funds to execute. Also, delays in statutory clearances impede timely completion of projects. All these factors are likely to continue to put pressure on construction companies in 2014.
Ind-Ra expects banks to continue to be cautious while lending as the construction and infrastructure (excluding power) sectors together account for over 20% of the aggregate debt under the corporate debt restructuring mechanism. Enhancement of working capital limits is taking a long time, thus adding to the liquidity pressure on companies and also weakening their ability to execute. Liquidity of construction companies has further been impacted by the Reserve Bank of India's circular of May 2013, restricting the sanction and roll-over of short-term loans. This has reduced the flexibility of companies to fund their ad-hoc and short-term working capital requirements.
Order execution will continue to be sluggish in FY15 due to reduced ability of companies to fund working capital and delays in statutory clearances. Consequently, the aggregate revenue growth of the sector will continue to decline, with some companies facing a fall in revenue.
Debt and interest costs continue to be high, due to increasing working capital requirements and funding of BOT project equity through borrowing at the parent level. This, coupled with the sluggish revenue and lower EBITDA margins, has weakened credit metrics which are unlikely to recover in the near term.
Ind-Ra expects limited takers for fresh BOT projects, given the already stretched financial position of companies and their inability to raise funds. Many construction companies have stretched their resources by taking on build-operate-transfer (BOT) projects without identifying the source of equity funding. Companies aiming to carry out construction in-house have taken on BOT projects from which the returns are too low to attract private equity investments. Since public and private equity markets have been lacklustre, many of these projects have been stalled.
